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Vietnam Retail Sales YoY YTD

Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNRSYY

Latest, October 2026

12.7%

+0.22pp from September 2026

Recent history

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202612.7%
September 202612.5%
August 202612.2%
July 202611.9%
June 202611.4%
May 202610.8%
April 202610.5%
March 202610.0%
February 20268.9%
January 20269.3%
December 20259.5%
November 20259.5%
October 20259.8%
September 202510.0%
August 20259.9%
July 20259.8%
June 20259.9%
May 202510.2%
April 202510.2%
March 20259.9%
February 20259.4%
January 20259.5%
December 20248.6%
November 20248.6%

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 13.6%, with an 80% interval of 9.4% to 18.4%.

Forecast path with the 80% interval.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202612.9%12.2%13.6%
December 202613.0%11.9%14.0%
January 202713.1%11.8%14.4%
February 202713.2%11.7%14.9%
March 202713.3%11.4%15.4%
April 202713.4%11.3%15.5%
May 202713.4%11.1%15.9%
June 202713.5%10.8%16.2%
July 202713.5%10.7%16.6%
August 202713.6%10.4%17.0%
September 202713.6%9.8%17.6%
October 202713.6%9.4%18.4%

Model: AR(1) + Chronos-2 blend. Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

Accuracy: Ties no-change, won 6 of 12 test years. Its errors were 1.03 times those of a no-change forecast (MASE). The 80% band held 81% of outcomes. No-change is a forecast that keeps the latest value.

Commentary

Retail sales YTD to rise to +12.92% in Nov 2026, continuing upward to +13.61% by Oct 2027.

From 12.68% (Oct 2026) to +12.92% (Nov 2026): tourism and services recovery boost retail receipts (NSO, VnEconomy).

From 12.68% to +13.61% by Oct 2027: surging electronics exports (Samsung, Foxconn) and global AI demand raise incomes.

From 12.68% to +13.61%: SBV deposit-rate directive and extended fiscal support through 2026 underpin household credit and consumption.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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