LaplaceTerminal

Vietnam Manufacturing Production YoY YTD

Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNMPRYY

Latest, October 2026

12.5%

+0.35pp from September 2026

Recent history

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202612.5%
September 202612.2%
August 202611.8%
July 202611.5%
June 202610.9%
May 202610.5%
April 202610.5%
March 202610.9%
February 202612.4%
January 202623.6%
December 202510.6%
November 202510.5%
October 202510.4%
September 202510.3%
August 202510.1%
July 202510.1%
June 202510.5%
May 202510.7%
April 202510.7%
March 202510.6%
February 202510.1%
January 20250.5%
December 20249.0%
November 20248.9%

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 9.6%, with an 80% interval of 3.1% to 15.7%.

Forecast path with the 80% interval.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202611.5%9.0%14.5%
December 202611.1%8.2%14.9%
January 202710.7%6.7%15.2%
February 202711.9%7.5%17.3%
March 202710.6%6.4%15.5%
April 202710.3%5.8%15.4%
May 202710.3%4.8%16.3%
June 202710.0%1.5%17.9%
July 202710.0%4.0%16.5%
August 20279.8%4.9%15.5%
September 20279.8%4.0%15.5%
October 20279.6%3.1%15.7%

Model: AR(1) + Chronos-2 blend. Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

Accuracy: Beats no-change, won 9 of 12 test years. Its errors were 0.85 times those of a no-change forecast (MASE). The 80% band held 78% of outcomes. No-change is a forecast that keeps the latest value.

Commentary

Manufacturing growth slows from 12.51% (Oct 2026) to 11.08% by Dec 2026, reaching 9.56% by Oct 2027.

From 12.51% to 11.08% (Dec 2026), export orders soften despite electronics exports surging to US$175.4bn YTD.

To 9.56% by Oct 2027, slowdown reflects import‑intensive electronics, a widening trade deficit, and post‑investment normalization (Samsung, FDI growth).

Temporary uptick to 11.88% (Feb 2027) possible due to SBV easing, lower lending costs and government supply‑chain support for electronics.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

More from Laplace Terminal

Also in Output & Demand