LaplaceVietnam GDP Growth YoY
Output & Demand · Quarterly series · VNGDPYY
Latest, Q3 2026
9.9%
+1.14pp from Q2 2026
Recent history
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% |
| Q2 2026 | 8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | 8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | 8.2% |
| Q1 2025 | 6.9% |
| Q4 2024 | 7.5% |
| Q3 2024 | 7.4% |
| Q2 2024 | 7.1% |
| Q1 2024 | 5.9% |
| Q4 2023 | 6.7% |
| Q3 2023 | 5.5% |
| Q2 2023 | 4.2% |
| Q1 2023 | 3.4% |
| Q4 2022 | 5.9% |
| Q3 2022 | 13.7% |
| Q2 2022 | 7.8% |
| Q1 2022 | 5.0% |
| Q4 2021 | 5.2% |
| Q3 2021 | -6.0% |
| Q2 2021 | 6.7% |
| Q1 2021 | 4.7% |
| Q4 2020 | 4.5% |
Forecast
Forecast for Q3 2027: 7.3%, with an 80% interval of 3.8% to 10.9%.
| Period | Forecast | 80% low | 80% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 9.6% | 7.0% | 12.1% |
| Q1 2027 | 8.4% | 5.4% | 11.2% |
| Q2 2027 | 7.8% | 4.6% | 11.0% |
| Q3 2027 | 7.3% | 3.8% | 10.9% |
Accuracy: Beats no-change, won 6 of 8 test years. Its errors were 0.72 times those of a no-change forecast (MASE). The 80% band held 84% of outcomes. No-change is a forecast that keeps the latest value.
Commentary
GDP growth set to slow to 7.31% by 2027-09 from 9.95% in 2026-09, signaling marked cooling.
9.95% to 7.31% (2026-09 to 2027-09): slowdown despite strong electronics exports; Samsung $1.5bn testing plant and Intel expansions support base. 9.63% (2026-12) to 7.80% (2027-06): moderating as FDI and exports face energy-price and global demand headwinds. 8.15%→9.95% (2026-03 to 2026-09): public investment, approvals and export rebound lifted near-term growth.
Source
Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.
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