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Vietnam Industrial Production YoY YTD

Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNIPYY

Latest, October 2026

12.0%

+0.33pp from September 2026

Recent history

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202612.0%
September 202611.7%
August 202611.1%
July 202610.6%
June 20269.9%
May 20269.3%
April 20269.1%
March 20269.1%
February 202610.0%
January 202619.4%
December 20259.3%
November 20259.3%
October 20259.3%
September 20259.2%
August 20258.7%
July 20258.7%
June 20259.0%
May 20259.1%
April 20259.0%
March 20258.8%
February 20258.3%
January 2025-1.0%
December 20248.1%
November 20248.1%

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 8.4%, with an 80% interval of 1.0% to 16.5%.

Forecast path with the 80% interval.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202611.5%9.9%13.9%
December 202611.1%8.6%14.6%
January 202710.6%6.4%14.8%
February 202710.3%6.1%14.9%
March 20279.9%5.4%15.0%
April 20279.7%4.6%15.8%
May 20279.0%-1.1%19.1%
June 20279.2%2.5%16.3%
July 20278.9%3.4%15.3%
August 20278.7%3.2%15.6%
September 20278.5%-0.3%16.8%
October 20278.4%1.0%16.5%

Model: AR(1) + Chronos-2 blend. Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

Accuracy: Beats no-change, won 8 of 12 test years. Its errors were 0.85 times those of a no-change forecast (MASE). The 80% band held 82% of outcomes. No-change is a forecast that keeps the latest value.

Commentary

Industrial production YoY is forecast to decline to 9.71% by Apr 2027, down from 12.01% in Oct 2026.

Trajectory: falls from 12.01% in Oct 2026 to 9.71% by Apr 2027, driven by weaker global smartphone and electronics demand.

Trajectory: 11.12% Dec 2026 versus 12.01% Oct 2026, supported by large FDI and strong electronics exports (Samsung expansions, GSO export data).

Trajectory: sliding to 8.40% by Oct 2027, pressured by falling new export orders and SBV liquidity withdrawal.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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