LaplaceTerminal

Vietnam Exports YoY YTD

Trade & External · Monthly series · VNEXP

Latest, October 2026

27.9%

+3.13pp from September 2026

Recent history

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 202627.9%
September 202624.8%
August 202622.7%
July 202622.1%
June 202621.5%
May 202619.9%
April 202620.3%
March 202619.4%
February 202618.7%
January 202630.2%
December 202517.4%
November 202516.7%
October 202516.8%
September 202516.7%
August 202515.6%
July 202515.7%
June 202515.5%
May 202515.1%
April 202513.1%
March 202510.7%
February 20258.5%
January 2025-4.0%
December 202414.1%
November 202414.2%

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 18.5%, with an 80% interval of 2.3% to 31.6%.

Forecast path with the 80% interval.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 202627.2%21.7%32.1%
December 202626.3%18.6%33.2%
January 202726.1%16.9%35.2%
February 202725.1%13.3%35.5%
March 202724.0%11.6%34.6%
April 202723.2%9.9%35.2%
May 202721.4%4.7%34.4%
June 202721.0%5.4%33.8%
July 202720.4%7.3%31.7%
August 202719.7%7.6%31.0%
September 202719.2%5.4%31.2%
October 202718.5%2.3%31.6%

Model: AR(1) + Chronos-2 blend. Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

Accuracy: Beats no-change, won 6 of 12 test years. Its errors were 0.89 times those of a no-change forecast (MASE). The 80% band held 78% of outcomes. No-change is a forecast that keeps the latest value.

Commentary

Exports YoY YTD forecast to fall to 26.25% in Dec 2026, -1.64 pp from 27.89% (Oct 2026).

From 27.89% (Oct 2026) to 26.25% (Dec 2026), forecasted decline reflects fading front‑loaded semiconductor shipments and easing export momentum.

Then down to 18.54% (Oct 2027), reflecting weaker global demand and higher import content in electronics, boosting Vietnam's components imports.

Samsung's $1.5bn semiconductor testing plant and other FDI sustain exports but won't fully offset 2027 demand cooling.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

More from Laplace Terminal

Also in Trade & External