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Vietnam Core Inflation YoY YTD

Prices · Monthly series · VNCIR

Latest, October 2026

4.2%

-0.02pp from September 2026

Recent history

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
October 20264.2%
September 20264.3%
August 20264.2%
July 20264.2%
June 20264.1%
May 20264.0%
April 20263.9%
March 20263.6%
February 20263.5%
January 20263.2%
December 20253.2%
November 20253.2%
October 20253.2%
September 20253.2%
August 20253.2%
July 20253.2%
June 20253.2%
May 20253.1%
April 20253.0%
March 20253.0%
February 20253.0%
January 20253.1%
December 20242.7%
November 20242.7%

Forecast

Forecast for October 2027: 3.7%, with an 80% interval of -0.6% to 7.4%.

Forecast path with the 80% interval.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
November 20264.2%3.1%5.3%
December 20264.2%2.6%5.4%
January 20274.0%2.2%5.5%
February 20273.9%1.7%5.8%
March 20273.8%1.3%6.0%
April 20273.8%0.9%6.2%
May 20273.7%0.4%6.4%
June 20273.7%0.1%6.6%
July 20273.7%0.1%6.8%
August 20273.7%-0.1%7.0%
September 20273.7%-0.4%7.3%
October 20273.7%-0.6%7.4%

Model: AR(1) + Chronos-2 blend. Forecast generated 2026-11-03.

Accuracy: Ties no-change, won 4 of 8 test years. Its errors were 0.94 times those of a no-change forecast (MASE). The 80% band held 76% of outcomes. No-change is a forecast that keeps the latest value.

Commentary

Core inflation expected to fall to 3.67% YoY by Oct 2027, down from 4.24% in Oct 2026.

From 4.24% (Oct 2026) to 4.19% (Nov 2026), reflecting SBV deposit-rate guidance and easier liquidity.

Then to 3.75–3.67% by May–Oct 2027, driven by softer global oil prices and Vietnam's Fuel Price Stabilization Fund.

Additionally, the downtrend is supported by large electronics FDI (Samsung $1.5bn, LG Innotek $1bn) easing supply-side pressures.

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-11-03.

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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